Monday, 23 November 2015

Canelo Alvarez vs GGG Gennady Golovkin : Who Wins?

Canelo vs GGG Who Wins? Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin Detailed Breakdown

Canelo Alvarez vs GGG is the biggest fight that can be made in boxing at the present time. Every day our twitter feed Is being filled with comments about who would win a bout out of these two superstars. Given the publics demand and the likelihood of this major fight eventually happening, we have decided to provide a detailed breakdown of who we think will win a fight between these two.

Canelo Alvarez vs GGG ‘Gennady Golovkin’ Sparring Video

As you probably know Canelo and GGG have sparred extensively in the past. A majority of this sparring was done in 2010 and 2011 throughout the West coast of the United States. Several of GGG's sparring partners who witnessed this, have often referred to the Middleweight superstar easily getting the better of this sparring and bashing Alvarez. This may well be true, but it’s important to recognize that Golovkin was closer to the finished product at the time and he was already a beast at the time. Canelo was still very raw at the time and he was only 21 years old. So basing the winner of this future mega fight on the results of these sparring sessions in my mind is totally inaccurate. At the time Golovkin also physically towered over Canelo. Since then the Mexican star has grown considerably and they are both close to the same size physically at the current time. Putting this into perspective the 2011 version of Canelo wouldn't last two rounds with the current version of Canelo. 

When Will Canelo Alvarez fight GGG?

For me this is the main point, in determining the potential winner. You have team GGG who want this fight to happen immediately. Golovkin is 33 and his team know he won’t be at his peak for more than a few more years. Despite some on my twitter feed arguing that he can fight like this until his late 30’s, I totally disagree. Even though he hasn’t taken much punishment at all, due to his excellent footwork and defense, hundreds of amateur bouts, a large number of pro fights and thousands of rounds of sparring will eventually catch up with him. Father time always wins.

So I will provide two predictions on who wins this mega fight. Keep in mind we have several contributors to this site now and we all agree that they could be accurate. One prediction will be assuming this fight takes place in the next 18 months. The other prediction is presuming this fight takes place in around 3 years time. Knowing Canelo and his overall class and willingness to fight the best, there is a good chance this bout will take place towards the end of 2016, or early 2017. Canelo’s next fight will likely be against Joshua Clottey or Timothy Bradley.

Team GGG may be unhappy with the split if the fight is made now, since GGG vs Lemeiux sold a poor number of PPV’s. Team GGG may want one more PPV showing to put in some solid numbers, to demand a larger piece of the pie for the mega fight against Golovkin. Canelo may also fight Bradley next as that will be on PPV and another stellar showing will show the world that Canelo can draw huge numbers regardless of the opponent. Keep in mind despite the recent Canelo vs Cotto PPV sales being counted in early stages, leading boxing expert Dan Rafael is predicting this will easily beat 800 000 buys. But we don't care about this to much? We just want to see the fight. How much the teams make isn't of concern, according to the fans. 

Who Wins?

As mentioned above, I will provide two scenarios.

If the fight happens between December 2015 and June 2017 I see the fight unfolding the following way. Canelo will be between 25 and 27 years of age, still improving rapidly and becoming a more complete fighter. GGG will be between 33 and 35 years of age, coming to the end of his peak period, but still very much in his prime!

In both scenarios, I don’t see the fight playing out differently for the first two rounds. In what is probably the biggest career defining fight for either fighter, they won’t rush out early to hurt the other opponent. The first two rounds will be full of nerves, with Gennady trying to measure the distance on Canelo and Canelo will respond with his fast right hand. Nothing much will land early. 

I expect Canelo to build up a lead on the scorecards throughout the 3rd and 4th rounds as GGG tries to push the fight a little. Canelo could already have a big lead by this point and he should be able to catch GGG coming in. GGG will probably realize at this point that although Canelo does have great power, it’s not enough power to keep GGG’s pressure off him. And GGG will begin to walk Canelo down.

Rounds 5 and 6 will play mostly the same way. With GGG taking a much more aggressive ring position. Walking down Canelo but taking a lot of shots to get to the inside. However in these two rounds, despite closely losing both rounds, GGG’s power punches will begin to land or get close to landing.

From rounds 7 onwards, Canelo will be gasping for air. Stamina has never been the Mexican's best attribute and fighting larger men will also make this a problem. The high work rate to keep GGG’s aggressive ring generalship at length will be taking a toll. Canelo is use to having an occasional round off, as we saw in the mid rounds against Cotto. However against GGG, no let up will be allowed.

GGG will win his first round of the fight in round 8 and he will win it in a big way. Hurting Canelo towards the end of the round. Canelo will see out the round due to the bell. Round 9 will start with all action, with Canelo letting his hands go, his speed ensuring some solid shots land on Golovkin, however no damage will be done. Golovkin will continue to walk the ever tiring Canelo down, viciously hurting Canelo with a series of body and head shots towards the end of the round. Canelo will stagger to his corner. And GGG will win by TKO at the end of the 9th round. Canelo’s corner will decide not to send the Mexican star out for the 10th round. Kind of similar to Cotto vs Margarito 1, however Canelo will have a bigger lead on the cards early. 

Scenario 2. If the fight happens on or after August of 2017, I expect it will go a bit differently. Now scenario 1 will be identical to scenario 2 for the first four rounds.  GGG will be close to 36 years of age at that time, close to the same age you saw Sergio Martinez begin to deteriorate quite rapidly.

The difference in this scenario will be what happens after round 4. Despite being down on the cards quite big, GGG will continue to force the pace of the fight and direct where the fight takes place. However unlike in scenario 1, GGG’s work rate will drop slightly in each round after the 4th. This will be the crucial difference to Canelo being able to take a round here and there off and see out the 12 rounds. Canelo will also have a substantial lead similar to scenario one, however GGG won’t have the work rate to land enough and take advantage of a tiring Canelo.

GGG will also become more dangerous and reckless as the fight goes on, looping huge power shots from the outside which Canelo should be able to counter quite effectively. Despite being well ahead on the cards, I doubt a prime Canelo would be able to stop a post-prime or slightly declining GGG, such is the chin that GGG has. Remember Gennady hasn’t been dropped in a single amateur or professional fight and even in sparring, according to those close to him. Canelo’s moments will get the crowd excited as the Mexican will land fast combinations which go without a reply in the last couple of rounds, however GGG will easily see out the 12 rounds. Suffering quite a wide UD loss on all of the cards.

So in summary if the fight happens soon, I can see a late stoppage win for GGG. If the fight doesn’t happen soon, which I expect will happen, then Canelo will likely win a UD. This is boxing, Canelo’s team know the risks and I find it hard to believe Oscar will allow Canelo to take such a big risk fight in the next year. For the fans sake I hope it does happen soon, as it will be a step to greatness for either fighter.

If this is done correctly, it could very well compete with Floyd vs Manny as the biggest fight of all time. This is another reason why it probably won’t happen next as both camps know that if both fighters can get a few more impressive wins, then the bout will be much bigger from a financial point of view.

In summary, the fight needs to be made. GGG as we all know is a beast and a modern day Hagler. Whereas Canelo is vastly improving and is becoming a superstar that many Mexican fans predicted years back.

Let’s see how this plays out!

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9 comments:

  1. Good analysis. I am all for Canelo. I think he can win against GGG in 4Q 2016. He has great power, súper combinations, underrated defense and his fight against Kirkland and now Cotto prove he can hurt you easily.

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  2. Correct However.. First Scenario I Dont See GGG That Far Behind In Scorecards. Maybe 1 Round Or 2 At The Most. Canelo's Defense Is Underrated But As We All Know.. He's Flat-Footed, Thats His ONLY Flaw. Moving Backwards Or Simply Moving Out The Way Isnt What Canelo Does So If For Even 1 Second Canelo Cant Take GGG Punches .. TKO. However Same For GGG, He Has Substantial Power, And His Footwork Is Great .. But If He Cant Sustain Canelo's Power Then Its Over. But GGG Has Had Over 350 Amateur Fights So Lets See How It Goes!

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  3. Correct However.. First Scenario I Dont See GGG That Far Behind In Scorecards. Maybe 1 Round Or 2 At The Most. Canelo's Defense Is Underrated But As We All Know.. He's Flat-Footed, Thats His ONLY Flaw. Moving Backwards Or Simply Moving Out The Way Isnt What Canelo Does So If For Even 1 Second Canelo Cant Take GGG Punches .. TKO. However Same For GGG, He Has Substantial Power, And His Footwork Is Great .. But If He Cant Sustain Canelo's Power Then Its Over. But GGG Has Had Over 350 Amateur Fights So Lets See How It Goes!

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  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. Canelo wins by Ko in the 6th.......

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  6. OT: Manny is planning to get back in the ring? Yes! I read that he is planning to ask for a senate leave to be able to fight in the ring again. Get your Manny Pacquiao headphones,gloves, official tshirts and more Manny Pacquiao Merchandize only from the Official Manny Pacquiao Site.

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  7. you don't seem to post betting odds....or set your own odds...I wish you would, please. since this fight here is not even in the contract stage yet, I won't set odds. But the Ward-Kovalev fight...odds are slightly in Ward's favor. I don't buy that. I think Andre Ward is more likeable and American and black, but I fail to see how he can be favored as far as betting odds are. I would have to favor Kovalev to win...but I am rooting for Andre! Does that make any sense? I think betters who are BETTING on Kovalev - putting MONEY on him to win - want the odds in Ward's favor so they can collect more. Ward should be considered the UNDERDOG...and I hope he wins.

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  8. Saul is good and has improved. I have watched both spar and work out. GIG is far superior. Alvarez will do better than when they sparred in 2010-2011...which by EVERY account was a huge mismatch I'm GGG favor. GGG tko 8-9.

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